Main racing advisor Andrew Mount’s is a contributor to the Racing Publish, Racing Publish Weekender, Racing & Soccer Outlook, the GG.co.uk web site and a daily pundit on William Hill radio. Andrew makes use of stats and techniques to search out worth bets and shares his newest ideas beneath…
Andrew discovered 9-1 Wolverhampton scorer NEXT SECOND on Friday and in addition highlighted 8-1 runner-up NACHO because the hazard (CSF paid 78-1). He has 5 advisable bets on Saturday, August thirteenth. Comply with his suggestions this week and all 12 months spherical on horse racing betting websites with the lowdown on his newest picks beneath:
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VERREAUX EAGLE (system – Free Eagle offspring, first-time visor)
Progeny of the sire Free Eagle have a helpful report when fitted with a first-time visor (albei from a small pattern), touchdown 5 of their 18 begins for a revenue of £17.75 to a £1 stage stake at SP. VERREAUX EAGLE was a giant eyecatcher towards the bias at Chester on his penultimate begin and, although disappointing at Haydock subsequent time, he’s price one other probability now fitted with the headgear. I’ve additionally backed WENTWORTH FALLS, second by a head on this race final 12 months, and will likely be doing the reversed forecast.
QUEEN OF DEAUVILLE (system – nursery weight rank, good or sooner)
Final week, I mentioned the Johnston yard’s improbable report in July Course handicaps, particularly with horses who led or raced prominently on their newest begin, and QUEEN OF DEAUVILLE qualifies as a guess for me on that system. She additionally qualifies on a much less apparent angle – backing the second-highest weighted horse in a turf nursery on good or sooner going. Each time the nursery season comes round, you’ll hear pundits say – ‘at all times again the highest weight in a nursery’. Nonetheless, this doesn’t work – prior to now ten years you’d have misplaced over 15% on turnover (good or sooner turf solely). Backing the second highest-weighted runner loses much less (-8%) however those that had already had at the very least two runs in nurseries have been 72 from 363 (19.8% strike-rate) for a revenue pf £41.15 (+11.3%). We’ve had a 14-1 winner from simply 5 qualifiers up to now this 12 months and Queen Of Deauville clocked a quick time regardless of solely ending an outpaced seventh of eight over 6f right here final time. The step as much as 7f for the primary time seems to be positive to go well with.
FRONTISPIECE (system – Racing League class droppers)
Newbury professional FRONTISPIECE, whose course report reads 5112471264 (3-10), wasn’t overwhelmed far regardless of solely end eighth of 11 in a Racing League handicap at Doncaster final week and may return to profitable methods at his favorite venue. Horses who drop at school after ‘flopping’ (ending sixth or worse) in Racing League contests usually bounce again to win on the subsequent time of asking.
RED KITE (system – Charlie & Mark Johnston, blinkered first time on earlier begin)
Charlie & Mark Johnston have a stunning report with first-time blinkered runners and people of you who learn my unfold betting column will know that I repeatedly subject towards them. Nonetheless, they usually bounce again to win on their subsequent begin. Because the starting of 2016, backing any Johnston runner who wore first-time blinkers on its newest outing, no matter whether or not the headgear is retained, changed with one other type of headgear or left off solely, would have discovered 15 winners from 94 bets (16% strike-rate) for an enormous revenue of £130.88 to a £1 stage stake at SP. RED KITE, normally a frontrunner, was given a affected person experience at Pontefract final time (comprehensible given that there have been different tempo angles in opposition) however raced keenly in consequence. He regarded more likely to end nicely overwhelmed however stored on strongly to seize third place within the dying strides (a lot to my disgust as I’d laid him three locations!). The blinkers are swapped for cheekpieces and he’s price a guess to return to profitable methods.
HAVANA HEAT (system – Havana Gray, 5f-6f)
Havana Gray progeny are having fun with a golden spell in sprints in the meanwhile and a minimum of six of them contested a Listed fillies contest at Newbury yesterday, offering the 16-1 winner and 11-1 runner-up for a 210-1 Tote exacta. Previous to yesterday’s racing, the sire’s juveniles have been 33 from 165 over 5f-6f (20% strike-rate) for a revenue of £50.21. The Charles Hills-trained HAVANA HEAT beat just one house at Newbury on final month’s debut however will know extra this time and is price a speculative curiosity from a very good attract stall 3.
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