What a decade this yr has been. Whereas prediction items all the time include a big asterisk as a result of nobody is aware of actually something about what might play out sooner or later — corresponding to huge shocks to massive startup sectors — our views about 2022 have aged … apparently.
Final yr, Natasha Mascarenhas, Alex Wilhelm, and Anna Heim spotlighted three totally different startup theses that will outline the approaching 12 months. Now, we’re fact-checking how correct these predictions had been, plus what we’d change about our views. We all know. Humble.
For an mild vacation riff, we’re speaking about what occurred with the M&An area, open supply, and usage-based pricing. Let’s have some enjoyable!
Natasha: Let’s discuss acquisitions
Final yr, I predicted that M&A would evolve to incorporate a riskier kind of ambition. I cited Twitter’s starvation for a Slack competitor and Nike’s infatuation with NFT collectibles. I even reminded founders that startups must “keep disciplined even amid a cash-rich atmosphere” as a substitute of “spinning up lukewarm local weather and web3 methods as a result of that’s what they assume their cap desk needs to listen to.” (And that tradition and know-how are arduous to combine on the similar time).