A Ukrainian intelligence official downplayed the specter of Belarus becoming a member of the Russia-Ukraine battle amid hypothesis that the Kremlin ally might ship troops into the nation to struggle by the top of the 12 months.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has emerged as one among Russian President Vladimir Putin’s closest and most strategic allies amid the invasion of Ukraine that was launched on February 24, 2022. As many world leaders condemn the battle, Lukashenko has defended the Russian chief, even letting his troops enter Ukraine from Belarusian borders in the beginning of the battle.
After nearly 11 months of fight, Putin’s troops have struggled to realize substantial targets in Ukraine, which responded with a stronger-than-expected protection effort, bolstered by Western army support. Amid Putin’s floundering invasion, Belarus has carried out a number of army workout routines in current months, fueling hypothesis it might turn out to be extra concerned within the battle.
Nonetheless, Andriy Yusov, a consultant of Ukraine’s Essential Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Protection, dismissed this hypothesis in remarks first reported by Ukrainska Pravda on Saturday.
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Yusov as a substitute described these workout routines as a part of a psychological and informational operation, in response to Ukrainska Pravda.
“It’s within the pursuits of Putin and the so-called Russian Federation to push the difficulty with Belarus as a lot as attainable,” Yusov mentioned, noting that Lukashenko “doesn’t need to take suicidal actions” by sending his troops into the battle.
He added that whereas Ukraine doesn’t presently see any threats from Belarus, its army stays prepared “within the occasion of a change within the scenario.”
“We all know the whole lot concerning the dictator Lukashenko, concerning the regime in Belarus. However there are goal issues: the variety of the strike group, the readiness of forces and means and different factors that enable us to say that, as of right now, there is no such thing as a risk from Belarus of a full-scale floor operation, its participation on the facet of Russia,” Yusov mentioned.
Dr. Anna Ohanyan, a senior scholar on the Carnegie Endowment for Worldwide Peace, instructed Newsweek on Saturday that Yusov’s evaluation “makes strategic sense” for Russia.
“Nevertheless it additionally exhibits how determined state of affairs on the bottom for Russia. The dangers of regime survival for Lukashenko, if he joins the battle, stay vital, even once we contemplate he full management over the media and tight relations with the Kremlin,” Ohanyan mentioned in a written assertion.
She added that misinformation campaigns are a “core part” of a hybrid battle technique. “It’s on this hybrid warfare methods that Lukashenko might be helpful to the Kremlin, with out activating home backlash at dwelling,” she wrote.
Yusov’s remarks come simply days after the Institute for the Examine of Warfare (ISW), a U.S.-based assume tank, assessed that Moscow might be “setting circumstances” for Belarus to enter the battle, noting that its involvement can be unlikely till later this 12 months.
“Essentially the most harmful plan of action (MDCOA) of a brand new Russian assault in opposition to Ukraine from Belarus in early 2023 appears much less seemingly given present Russian army exercise in Belarus. A brand new MDCOA of an assault from Belarus in late 2023 appears extra seemingly,” the ISW mentioned.
Hypothesis started final 12 months that Belarus might be getting ready to escalate its involvement, although consultants have cautioned doing so would seemingly not be definitely worth the penalties for Lukashenko. Nonetheless, his authorities has known as for male residents to go to enlistment facilities, and introduced plans to extend its troops’ fight readiness.
In the meantime, Russia’s International Ministry mentioned earlier this month that a few of these workout routines had been supposed to discourage opponents from “escalation and provocations.”
Newsweek reached out to the Russian Ministry of Protection for remark.
